Based on an analysis by Pike & Fischer, a research company, the deployment of DOCSIS 3.0 to 99 percent of households that have so far been passed should be competed by US cable operators by 2013.
It has been estimated by Pike & Fischer that at the end of 2008 about 15 million of 120 million homes passed nationwide were passed by DOCSIS 3.0, which equates to about 13 percent. This number should increase to almost 53 million homes in 2009 and 119 million by 2013 according to expectations from the company.
By the end of 2010 an estimated 50.3 million homes will see the deployment of DOCSIS 3.0 that has been planned by Comcast across the whole of its footprint.
Starting around the middle of May Cablevision Systems will provide around 5 million homes with super-fast broadband, according to a recent announcements.
The estimates from Pike & Fischer show that in 2010 the annual spending on DOCSIS 3.0 will peak at $400 million and over the next five years will total less than $1.2 billion.
According to analyst at Pike & Fischer’s Broadband Advisory Services research group, Tim McElgunn, rather than home-based users, the ability to expand small and medium businesses with high-speed internet services and operational costs are the main driving force behind cable’s DOCSIS 3.0 build-outs.
According to the summary in a report called “DOCSIS 3.0 Deployment Forecast” McElgunn wrote “In our view, it is not the prospect of vastly increased residential high-speed data revenue that will encourage rapid deployment of DOCSIS 3.0 technology.”
The firms own analysis, the expected decrease over time in the cost of DOCSIS 3.0 and individual company statements are the basis of the projections cautioned McElgunn. The total number of homes that are passed by cable operators remaining the same is also assumed by the forecast.